Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · SUB R3

Elo1392

Elo1356

Paul FeldervsDaron CruickshankUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:56

Style matchupPaul Felder: StrikervsDaron Cruickshank: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Felder

Red Corner

Daron Cruickshank

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1392

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Daron CruickshankL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erik Koch · May 14

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul FelderMetricDaron Cruickshank

3.70

Strikes / min

2.88

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

48%

Strike defense

57%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

2.04

64%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul FelderDaron Cruickshank

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Felder(10 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.6|Blue -35.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul FelderTargetDaron Cruickshank

By target zone

47% acc · 70%

Head

46% acc · 56%

67% acc · 17%

Body

73% acc · 34%

86% acc · 13%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

30% acc · 24%

Distance

54% acc · 69%

56% acc · 30%

Clinch

60% acc · 28%

84% acc · 46%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Felder rounds

even

Daron Cruickshank rounds

Round 1Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:35

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:06

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:28

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 87

Sig Strikes

32 / 58

55%

Sig Str %

51.3%

69 / 110

Total Strikes

54 / 82

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 8

33%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:09

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daron Cruickshank	18 / 33	25 / 42	1 / 2	0
1	Paul Felder	14 / 32	17 / 35	0 / 1	1
2	Daron Cruickshank	12 / 20	22 / 30	2 / 4	0
2	Paul Felder	15 / 33	24 / 42	0 / 0	1
3	Daron Cruickshank	2 / 5	7 / 10	0 / 2	0
3	Paul Felder	17 / 22	28 / 33	2 / 3	1

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12