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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · S-DEC R5

Elo1392

Elo1484

Paul FeldervsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Saturday, February 22, 2020Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupPaul Felder: StrikervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Felder

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1392

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Felder

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 17

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul FelderMetricDan Hooker

3.70

Strikes / min

4.82

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

48%

Strike defense

49%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

0.68

64%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul FelderDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Felder(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.4|Blue +92.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul FelderTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

38% acc · 58%

Head

45% acc · 59%

73% acc · 17%

Body

77% acc · 8%

79% acc · 25%

Leg

85% acc · 33%

By position

105

48% acc · 95%

Distance

120

55% acc · 98%

42% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Felder rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 4Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 5Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 230

Sig Strikes

122 / 221

47%

Sig Str %

53.6%

119 / 243

Total Strikes

133 / 234

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

5:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	24 / 46	25 / 47	0 / 0
1	Paul Felder	16 / 42	17 / 43	0 / 0
2	Dan Hooker	26 / 43	27 / 44	0 / 0
2	Paul Felder	26 / 48	27 / 50	0 / 0
3	Dan Hooker	39 / 63	39 / 63	0 / 0
3	Paul Felder	28 / 57	28 / 57	0 / 1
4	Paul Felder	25 / 47	27 / 49	0 / 0
4	Dan Hooker	15 / 36	18 / 39	0 / 2
5	Dan Hooker	18 / 33	24 / 41	1 / 3
5	Paul Felder	15 / 36	20 / 44	0 / 0

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24