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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Volkan Oezdemir won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1515

Paul CraigvsVolkan OezdemirUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Volkan Oezdemir won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Volkan Oezdemir wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Volkan Oezdemir is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Volkan Oezdemir has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Volkan Oezdemir has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Volkan Oezdemir

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1473

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Volkan Oezdemir

oldest →

vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22

SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24

vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricVolkan Oezdemir

2.50

Strikes / min

4.99

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.19

43%

Strike defense

55%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

0.50

35%

Takedown defense

80%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigVolkan Oezdemir

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.5|Blue +42.5

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetVolkan Oezdemir

By target zone

18% acc · 55%

Head

45% acc · 63%

53% acc · 30%

Body

91% acc · 14%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

27% acc · 97%

Distance

52% acc · 69%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

62% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Volkan Oezdemir rounds

Round 1Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 126

Sig Strikes

72 / 129

31.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

41 / 136

Total Strikes

108 / 170

0 / 15

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

5:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Volkan Oezdemir	16 / 29	26 / 39	0 / 0
1	Paul Craig	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 5
2	Volkan Oezdemir	27 / 48	47 / 73	1 / 1
2	Paul Craig	16 / 53	23 / 62	0 / 6
3	Volkan Oezdemir	29 / 52	35 / 58	0 / 1
3	Paul Craig	12 / 62	13 / 63	0 / 4

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16