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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

No Contest won · CNC R1

Elo1473

Elo1515

Paul CraigvsRodolfo BellatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

No Contest

CNC · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsRodolfo Bellato: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Rodolfo Bellato is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Rodolfo Bellato has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Rodolfo Bellato

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1473

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Rodolfo Bellato

oldest →

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Dec 23

vs Jimmy Crute · Feb 25

vs Navajo Stirling · Sep 25

KOvs Luke Fernandez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricRodolfo Bellato

2.50

Strikes / min

5.37

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

43%

Strike defense

46%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

1.38

35%

Takedown defense

94%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigRodolfo Bellato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Rodolfo Bellato(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.3|Blue +42.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetRodolfo Bellato

By target zone

44% acc · 41%

Head

18% acc · 20%

91% acc · 59%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 60%

By position

61% acc · 82%

Distance

53% acc · 90%

67% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

33% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Rodolfo Bellato rounds

Round 1Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:34

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 27

Sig Strikes

10 / 20

62%

Sig Str %

50%

40 / 52

Total Strikes

16 / 27

0 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodolfo Bellato	10 / 20	16 / 27	1 / 1	0
1	Paul Craig	17 / 27	40 / 52	0 / 6	0

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Rodolfo Bellato

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5