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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Walker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1473

Elo1495

Paul CraigvsJohnny WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Johnny Walker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:16

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsJohnny Walker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Johnny Walker has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Johnny Walker has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Johnny Walker

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1473

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

193.04 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Johnny Walker

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · May 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricJohnny Walker

2.50

Strikes / min

3.90

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

43%

Strike defense

46%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

0.36

35%

Takedown defense

57%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigJohnny Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Johnny Walker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.8|Blue +21.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetJohnny Walker

By target zone

0% acc

Head

75% acc · 75%

50% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 6%

67% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

Ground

83% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Johnny Walker rounds

Round 1Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 8

Sig Strikes

16 / 20

37%

Sig Str %

80%

3 / 8

Total Strikes

17 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Johnny Walker	16 / 20	17 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Paul Craig	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0	0

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14