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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1473

Elo1485

Paul CraigvsJamahal HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:59

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsJamahal Hill: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jamahal Hill wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamahal Hill at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jamahal Hill is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Jamahal Hill has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jamahal Hill (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Jamahal Hill

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1473

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Jamahal HillL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · Aug 22

vs Glover Teixeira · Jan 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jan 25

vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricJamahal Hill

2.50

Strikes / min

6.19

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

43%

Strike defense

44%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

0.00

35%

Takedown defense

73%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 2.70 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigJamahal Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Jamahal Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.6|Blue +12.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetJamahal Hill

By target zone

90% acc · 78%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Leg

50% acc · 100%

By position

86% acc · 26%

Distance

13% acc · 100%

Clinch

94% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Jamahal Hill rounds

Round 1Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 25

Sig Strikes

1 / 8

92%

Sig Str %

12%

43 / 47

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamahal Hill	1 / 8	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Paul Craig	23 / 25	43 / 47	0 / 1	3

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Jamahal Hill

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11