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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R1

Elo1473

Elo1390

Paul CraigvsGadzhimurad AntigulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:06

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsGadzhimurad Antigulov: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gadzhimurad Antigulov wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gadzhimurad Antigulov at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Paul Craig has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Gadzhimurad Antigulov

Blue Corner

-137

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1473

Elo

1390

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Gadzhimurad AntigulovL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 16

SUBvs Joachim Christensen · May 17

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jul 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 19

KOvs Maxim Grishin · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricGadzhimurad Antigulov

2.50

Strikes / min

2.08

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

43%

Strike defense

40%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

5.08

35%

Takedown defense

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-2.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigGadzhimurad Antigulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Gadzhimurad Antigulov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.8|Blue -82.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetGadzhimurad Antigulov

By target zone

40% acc · 100%

Head

64% acc · 82%

Body

100% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 91%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Gadzhimurad Antigulov rounds

Round 1Gadzhimurad Antigulov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 5

Sig Strikes

11 / 16

40%

Sig Str %

68%

4 / 7

Total Strikes

16 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gadzhimurad Antigulov	11 / 16	16 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Paul Craig	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0	1

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Gadzhimurad Antigulov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6