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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1533

Paul CraigvsCaio BorralhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsCaio Borralho: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Caio Borralho has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Borralho has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Borralho (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Caio Borralho

Blue Corner

+390

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-520

(84%)

1473

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Caio Borralho

oldest →

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 23

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricCaio Borralho

2.50

Strikes / min

3.47

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

43%

Strike defense

60%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

1.25

35%

Takedown defense

76%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigCaio Borralho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Caio Borralho(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.7|Blue +59.7

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetCaio Borralho

By target zone

21% acc · 18%

Head

71% acc · 81%

52% acc · 55%

Body

60% acc · 8%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Caio Borralho rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:30

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 48

Sig Strikes

36 / 50

43.5%

Sig Str %

73%

22 / 50

Total Strikes

43 / 57

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caio Borralho	20 / 30	27 / 37	0 / 0
1	Paul Craig	15 / 29	15 / 31	0 / 5
2	Caio Borralho	16 / 20	16 / 20	0 / 0
2	Paul Craig	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 1

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9