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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1485

Paul CraigvsAndre MunizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:40

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsAndre Muniz: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Andre Muniz wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Muniz at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Muniz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Andre Muniz

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1473

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Andre MunizL2 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · Jul 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 23

vs JunYong Park · Dec 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Apr 25

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricAndre Muniz

2.50

Strikes / min

2.08

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

43%

Strike defense

51%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

3.98

35%

Takedown defense

35%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigAndre Muniz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Andre Muniz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.9|Blue +11.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetAndre Muniz

By target zone

47% acc · 78%

Head

50% acc · 63%

53% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 8%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

31% acc · 25%

Distance

56% acc · 63%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

60% acc · 75%

Ground

67% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Andre Muniz rounds

Round 1Andre Muniz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control2:56

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 82

Sig Strikes

24 / 40

45%

Sig Str %

60%

54 / 101

Total Strikes

31 / 47

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Muniz	13 / 23	15 / 25	1 / 1	0
1	Paul Craig	9 / 25	10 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Andre Muniz	11 / 17	16 / 22	1 / 1	0
2	Paul Craig	31 / 57	44 / 75	2 / 2	1

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Andre Muniz

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10