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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tom Duquesnoy won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1365
Patrick Williams
Elo1491

Patrick WilliamsvsTom DuquesnoyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Tom Duquesnoy won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:28

Style matchupPatrick Williams: WrestlervsTom Duquesnoy: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Patrick Williams wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Tom Duquesnoy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Williams at +650 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Duquesnoy is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Patrick Williams has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Duquesnoy has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Patrick Williams has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Patrick Williams has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Williams
Red Corner
VS
Tom Duquesnoy
Blue Corner
+650
(13%)
Vegas Odds
-1000
(91%)
1365
Elo
1491
44
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
185.42 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick Williams
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Beal · Apr 14
W
SUBvs Alejandro Perez · Jun 15
L
vs Luke Sanders · Apr 18
latest
Tom Duquesnoy
oldest →
L
vs Cody Stamann · Oct 17
W
vs Terrion Ware · Mar 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick WilliamsMetricTom Duquesnoy
4.12
Strikes / min
3.83
4.12
Strikes absorbed / min
5.30
52%
Strike defense
62%
2.71
TDs / 15 min
0.42
100%
Takedown defense
46%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
0.00Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes8.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form0.5 vs 0.0
Patrick WilliamsTom Duquesnoy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Patrick Williams(4 fights)Tom Duquesnoy(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -126.2|Blue +126.2
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick WilliamsTargetTom Duquesnoy

By target zone

20
38% acc · 54%
Head
16
57% acc · 44%
11
79% acc · 30%
Body
14
93% acc · 39%
6
100% acc · 16%
Leg
6
100% acc · 17%

By position

21
44% acc · 57%
Distance
18
69% acc · 50%
15
63% acc · 41%
Clinch
17
85% acc · 47%
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
1
33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Patrick Williams rounds
1
even
1
Tom Duquesnoy rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns2
Control0:38
Knockdowns0
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Tom Duquesnoy edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
37 / 73
Sig Strikes
36 / 49
50%
Sig Str %
70.5%
42 / 80
Total Strikes
36 / 49
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Duquesnoy30 / 4030 / 400 / 00
1Patrick Williams32 / 6337 / 702 / 40
2Tom Duquesnoy6 / 96 / 90 / 00
2Patrick Williams5 / 105 / 100 / 00

Patrick Williams

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Tom Duquesnoy

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights3