← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Walsh won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Patrick WalshvsDaniel SpohnUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · Sunday, July 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Walsh won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Daniel Spohn wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Patrick Walsh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Spohn at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Walsh has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Patrick Walsh has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Daniel Spohn has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Walsh

Red Corner

Daniel Spohn

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'4"

180.34 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick Walsh

oldest →

vs Daniel Kelly · Feb 15

latest

Daniel SpohnNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick WalshMetricDaniel Spohn

2.03

Strikes / min

2.42

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

64%

Strike defense

53%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

28%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+0.82

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Walsh(2 fights)Daniel Spohn(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick WalshTargetDaniel Spohn

By target zone

46% acc · 100%

Head

43% acc · 83%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 13%

By position

33% acc · 36%

Distance

43% acc · 71%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

60% acc · 25%

55% acc · 55%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Walsh rounds

even

Daniel Spohn rounds

Round 1Patrick Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:11

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Patrick Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:05

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Patrick Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:47

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 24

Sig Strikes

24 / 51

46.3%

Sig Str %

45%

110 / 127

Total Strikes

52 / 80

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:03

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Spohn	6 / 11	9 / 14	0 / 0	1
1	Patrick Walsh	5 / 11	41 / 47	1 / 1	2
2	Daniel Spohn	4 / 13	17 / 27	0 / 1	0
2	Patrick Walsh	2 / 4	27 / 30	2 / 4	1
3	Daniel Spohn	14 / 27	26 / 39	0 / 0	1
3	Patrick Walsh	4 / 9	42 / 50	2 / 2	0

Patrick Walsh

Stance—

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Daniel Spohn

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights1