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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Cummins won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1373
Patrick Cummins
Elo1490

Patrick CumminsvsRoger NarvaezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:28

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Roger Narvaez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cummins
Red Corner
VS
Roger Narvaez
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1373
Elo
1490
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17
W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17
L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18
L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19
latest
Roger Narvaez
oldest →
W
vs Luke Barnatt · Nov 14
L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CumminsMetricRoger Narvaez
4.26
Strikes / min
2.12
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
55%
Strike defense
64%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
28%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes8.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Patrick CumminsRoger Narvaez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -117.5|Blue +117.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CumminsTargetRoger Narvaez

By target zone

29
57% acc · 91%
Head
3
14% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 6%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

5
31% acc · 16%
Distance
3
14% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
25
69% acc · 78%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Patrick Cummins rounds
0
even
0
Roger Narvaez rounds
Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control2:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:22
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
32 / 55
Sig Strikes
3 / 22
57.5%
Sig Str %
13%
49 / 73
Total Strikes
4 / 23
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:53
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roger Narvaez2 / 143 / 150 / 00
1Patrick Cummins13 / 2424 / 362 / 41
2Roger Narvaez1 / 81 / 80 / 00
2Patrick Cummins19 / 3125 / 371 / 10

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13

Roger Narvaez

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights3