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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cummins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1493

Patrick CumminsvsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPatrick Cummins: WrestlervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jan Blachowicz at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jan Blachowicz has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cummins

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1373

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CumminsMetricJan Blachowicz

4.26

Strikes / min

3.55

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

55%

Strike defense

52%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

0.98

28%

Takedown defense

69%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CumminsJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.6|Blue +120.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CumminsTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

57% acc · 85%

Head

49% acc · 81%

91% acc · 14%

Body

90% acc · 17%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

39% acc · 32%

Distance

48% acc · 70%

81% acc · 23%

Clinch

73% acc · 21%

80% acc · 45%

Ground

71% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cummins rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:28

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:28

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 121

Sig Strikes

53 / 99

58.3%

Sig Str %

51%

109 / 162

Total Strikes

68 / 115

3 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

38.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:39

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jan Blachowicz	31 / 51	37 / 57	0 / 0
1	Patrick Cummins	16 / 36	23 / 45	1 / 6
2	Jan Blachowicz	13 / 30	18 / 36	1 / 2
2	Patrick Cummins	21 / 38	27 / 44	1 / 2
3	Jan Blachowicz	9 / 18	13 / 22	0 / 0
3	Patrick Cummins	36 / 47	59 / 73	1 / 2

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21