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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1373

Elo1458

Patrick CumminsvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupPatrick Cummins: WrestlervsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Cummins has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ed Herman has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cummins

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1373

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CumminsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

latest

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Oct 18

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CumminsMetricEd Herman

4.26

Strikes / min

3.31

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

55%

Strike defense

42%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.96

28%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CumminsEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -85.0|Blue +85.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CumminsTargetEd Herman

By target zone

68% acc · 95%

Head

32% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

0% acc

By position

62% acc · 82%

Distance

29% acc · 73%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

25% acc · 9%

Ground

67% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cummins rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 33

Sig Strikes

11 / 35

66%

Sig Str %

31%

22 / 33

Total Strikes

14 / 38

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ed Herman	11 / 35	14 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Patrick Cummins	22 / 33	22 / 33	1 / 2	0

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16