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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tom Lawlor won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1490

Patrick CotevsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Tom Lawlor won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tom Lawlor wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Tom Lawlor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Lawlor at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Lawlor has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote

Red Corner

Tom Lawlor

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1360

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12

vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12

SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13

KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricTom Lawlor

2.81

Strikes / min

2.50

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

48%

Strike defense

60%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

2.46

43%

Takedown defense

57%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CoteTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cote(10 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.6|Blue +130.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

28% acc · 83%

Head

56% acc · 67%

33% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 12%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

0% acc

Distance

25% acc · 10%

100% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

40% acc · 33%

Ground

75% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cote rounds

even

Tom Lawlor rounds

Round 1Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:42Control

Round 2Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:38Control

Round 3Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 22

Sig Strikes

49 / 75

22%

Sig Str %

66.3%

28 / 44

Total Strikes

153 / 189

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 6

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

12:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Lawlor	16 / 21	52 / 61	1 / 1	2
1	Patrick Cote	5 / 9	14 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Tom Lawlor	17 / 31	49 / 67	2 / 3	0
2	Patrick Cote	1 / 9	13 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Tom Lawlor	16 / 23	52 / 61	2 / 2	1
3	Patrick Cote	0 / 4	1 / 5	0 / 0	0

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8