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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1482

Patrick CotevsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+340

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1360

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricStephen Thompson

2.81

Strikes / min

4.05

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

48%

Strike defense

54%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.23

43%

Takedown defense

63%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CoteStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cote(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.6|Blue +122.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -53.0|Blue +53.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

17% acc · 17%

Head

42% acc · 72%

31% acc · 15%

Body

56% acc · 14%

80% acc · 68%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

38% acc · 77%

Distance

45% acc · 81%

86% acc · 23%

Clinch

89% acc · 13%

Ground

44% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cote rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:21

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:26

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 123

Sig Strikes

64 / 134

42.7%

Sig Str %

47%

55 / 125

Total Strikes

67 / 138

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephen Thompson	13 / 32	14 / 33	0 / 0
1	Patrick Cote	26 / 40	28 / 42	0 / 4
2	Stephen Thompson	28 / 46	28 / 46	0 / 0
2	Patrick Cote	17 / 45	17 / 45	0 / 1
3	Stephen Thompson	23 / 56	25 / 59	0 / 0
3	Patrick Cote	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 3

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21