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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cote won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1360

Elo1364

Patrick CotevsJoshua BurkmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Patrick Cote won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:26

Model Prediction: Joshua Burkman wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Patrick Cote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Burkman at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Joshua Burkman has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote

Red Corner

Joshua Burkman

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1360

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Joshua BurkmanL5 streak

oldest →

vs Paul Felder · May 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricJoshua Burkman

2.81

Strikes / min

2.69

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

48%

Strike defense

51%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

2.53

43%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CoteJoshua Burkman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cote(10 fights)Joshua Burkman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetJoshua Burkman

By target zone

69% acc · 80%

Head

39% acc · 58%

30% acc · 5%

Body

86% acc · 27%

69% acc · 15%

Leg

64% acc · 16%

By position

49% acc · 52%

Distance

46% acc · 87%

90% acc · 15%

Clinch

86% acc · 13%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cote rounds

even

Joshua Burkman rounds

Round 1Joshua Burkman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:38

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:47

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 93

Sig Strikes

45 / 91

63.3%

Sig Str %

47%

106 / 140

Total Strikes

49 / 95

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joshua Burkman	23 / 37	23 / 37	0 / 0
1	Patrick Cote	17 / 25	41 / 50	0 / 3
2	Joshua Burkman	7 / 26	11 / 30	1 / 1
2	Patrick Cote	14 / 29	33 / 48	0 / 1
3	Joshua Burkman	15 / 28	15 / 28	0 / 0
3	Patrick Cote	29 / 39	32 / 42	0 / 0

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8