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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cote won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1490

Patrick CotevsJoe RiggsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Patrick Cote won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Patrick Cote wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Patrick Cote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cote at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Riggs has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joe Riggs (53.5%).
Patrick Cote has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote

Red Corner

Joe Riggs

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1360

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Joe Riggs

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Dec 14

vs Ron Stallings · Sep 15

KOvs Chris Camozzi · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricJoe Riggs

2.81

Strikes / min

2.41

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

1.69

48%

Strike defense

57%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

2.45

43%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CoteJoe Riggs

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cote(10 fights)Joe Riggs(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.6|Blue +130.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetJoe Riggs

By target zone

42% acc · 52%

Head

54% acc · 71%

43% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 14%

50% acc · 19%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

27% acc · 38%

Distance

47% acc · 43%

75% acc · 29%

Clinch

75% acc · 43%

70% acc · 33%

Ground

75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cote rounds

even

Joe Riggs rounds

Round 1Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:37

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Joe Riggs edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 3Joe Riggs edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control2:47

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 48

Sig Strikes

21 / 35

42.3%

Sig Str %

67.3%

110 / 151

Total Strikes

47 / 61

3 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:24

Ctrl Time

4:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Riggs	3 / 4	11 / 12	1 / 1	0
1	Patrick Cote	5 / 12	36 / 51	3 / 3	1
2	Joe Riggs	12 / 23	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Patrick Cote	12 / 26	22 / 36	0 / 3	0
3	Joe Riggs	6 / 8	16 / 18	1 / 1	0
3	Patrick Cote	4 / 10	52 / 64	0 / 0	0

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Joe Riggs

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4