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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Cote won · U-DEC R3
Elo1360
Patrick Cote
Elo1353
Bobby Voelker

Patrick CotevsBobby VoelkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Patrick Cote won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Patrick Cote wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Patrick Cote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cote at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bobby Voelker enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Bobby Voelker has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Voelker
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1360
Elo
1353
46
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15
W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17
latest
Bobby VoelkerL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 13
L
DECvs William Patolino · Dec 13
L
vs Lance Benoist · Jun 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricBobby Voelker
2.81
Strikes / min
4.01
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
5.84
48%
Strike defense
42%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
1.04
43%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1466 vs 1500Strikes22.4 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.15 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Patrick CoteBobby Voelker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Patrick Cote(10 fights)Bobby Voelker(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.6|Blue -6.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetBobby Voelker

By target zone

52
49% acc · 72%
Head
55
40% acc · 66%
9
53% acc · 13%
Body
14
74% acc · 17%
11
100% acc · 15%
Leg
14
82% acc · 17%

By position

55
50% acc · 76%
Distance
38
35% acc · 46%
15
65% acc · 21%
Clinch
30
73% acc · 36%
2
67% acc · 3%
Ground
15
60% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Patrick Cote rounds
1
even
1
Bobby Voelker rounds
Round 1Patrick Cote edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:53
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:13Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control1:30
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Bobby Voelker edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:19
31Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:53Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
72 / 135
Sig Strikes
83 / 175
55.7%
Sig Str %
46.3%
97 / 162
Total Strikes
153 / 265
0 / 6
TDs
4 / 5
0%
TD %
66.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:42
Ctrl Time
5:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bobby Voelker15 / 3936 / 621 / 10
1Patrick Cote26 / 4646 / 680 / 10
2Bobby Voelker37 / 8046 / 900 / 10
2Patrick Cote36 / 7340 / 770 / 20
3Bobby Voelker31 / 5671 / 1133 / 30
3Patrick Cote10 / 1611 / 170 / 30

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Bobby Voelker

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4