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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cote won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1360

Elo1379

Patrick CotevsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Cote won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:14

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Patrick Cote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ben Saunders has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote

Red Corner

Ben Saunders

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1360

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricBen Saunders

2.81

Strikes / min

3.23

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

48%

Strike defense

51%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.20

43%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patrick CoteBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patrick Cote(10 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

70% acc · 74%

Head

22% acc · 36%

44% acc · 10%

Body

78% acc · 64%

70% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 31%

Distance

30% acc · 64%

82% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 27%

77% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patrick Cote rounds

even

Ben Saunders rounds

Round 1Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:22

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Patrick Cote edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 63

Sig Strikes

11 / 27

66.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

55 / 76

Total Strikes

44 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Saunders	5 / 15	38 / 48	1 / 1	0
1	Patrick Cote	20 / 33	32 / 45	0 / 0	1
2	Ben Saunders	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Patrick Cote	22 / 30	23 / 31	0 / 0	0

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14