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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Cote won · DQ R1
Elo1360
Patrick Cote
Elo1353

Patrick CotevsAlessio SakaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Patrick Cote won

DQ · Round 1 · 1:26

Model Prediction: Patrick Cote wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Patrick Cote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cote at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alessio Sakara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alessio Sakara has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alessio Sakara has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote
Red Corner
VS
Alessio Sakara
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1360
Elo
1353
46
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15
W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17
latest
Alessio SakaraL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs James Irvin · Mar 10
L
vs Chris Weidman · Mar 11
L
KOvs Brian Stann · Apr 12
L
SUBvs Nico Musoke · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricAlessio Sakara
2.81
Strikes / min
3.96
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
48%
Strike defense
59%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
2.18
43%
Takedown defense
62%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1445 vs 1482Strikes23.1 vs 19.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.17 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.8
Patrick CoteAlessio Sakara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Patrick Cote(10 fights)Alessio Sakara(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.3|Blue -7.3
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetAlessio Sakara

By target zone

9
33% acc · 64%
Head
19
73% acc · 79%
3
100% acc · 21%
Body
5
63% acc · 21%
2
67% acc · 14%
Leg
0

By position

8
35% acc · 57%
Distance
3
30% acc · 13%
6
60% acc · 43%
Clinch
12
86% acc · 50%
0
Ground
9
90% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Patrick Cote rounds
0
even
1
Alessio Sakara rounds
Round 1Alessio Sakara edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
14 / 33
Sig Strikes
24 / 34
42%
Sig Str %
70%
14 / 33
Total Strikes
24 / 34
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alessio Sakara24 / 3424 / 340 / 00
1Patrick Cote14 / 3314 / 330 / 00

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Alessio Sakara

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5