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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Alan Belcher won · SUB R2
Elo1360
Patrick Cote
Elo1352
Alan Belcher

Patrick CotevsAlan BelcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Alan Belcher won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:25

Model Prediction: Alan Belcher wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Alan Belcher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Belcher at -117 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Belcher has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cote
Red Corner
VS
Alan Belcher
Blue Corner
+107
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-117
(54%)
1360
Elo
1352
46
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CoteL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15
W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17
latest
Alan BelcherL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · Sep 11
W
KOvs Rousimar Palhares · May 12
L
vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12
L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CoteMetricAlan Belcher
2.81
Strikes / min
2.70
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
48%
Strike defense
59%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
0.44
43%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes22.0 vs 26.5Takedowns0.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.11 vs 0.40Form0.0 vs 0.0
Patrick CoteAlan Belcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Patrick Cote(10 fights)Alan Belcher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.8|Blue -7.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CoteTargetAlan Belcher

By target zone

19
61% acc · 86%
Head
9
30% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Body
13
87% acc · 48%
3
60% acc · 14%
Leg
5
83% acc · 19%

By position

19
58% acc · 86%
Distance
22
51% acc · 81%
2
67% acc · 9%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 11%
1
100% acc · 5%
Ground
2
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Patrick Cote rounds
0
even
1
Alan Belcher rounds
Round 1Alan Belcher edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:55
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 2Patrick Cote edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:45
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 37
Sig Strikes
27 / 51
59%
Sig Str %
51.5%
35 / 50
Total Strikes
44 / 68
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
1:40
Ctrl Time
2:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Belcher18 / 2823 / 330 / 00
1Patrick Cote9 / 1821 / 301 / 11
2Alan Belcher9 / 2321 / 351 / 11
2Patrick Cote13 / 1914 / 201 / 10

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Alan Belcher

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5