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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jakub Wiklacz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1535

Patchy MixvsJakub WiklaczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jakub Wiklacz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Patchy Mix wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Jakub Wiklacz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patchy Mix at -350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jakub Wiklacz has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Patchy Mix (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Patchy Mix

Red Corner

Jakub Wiklacz

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1474

Elo

1535

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patchy Mix

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Jun 25

latest

Jakub Wiklacz

oldest →

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patchy MixMetricJakub Wiklacz

5.30

Strikes / min

3.40

7.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

43%

Strike defense

46%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.00Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Patchy MixJakub Wiklacz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Patchy Mix(2 fights)Jakub Wiklacz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.1|Blue +61.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patchy MixTargetJakub Wiklacz

By target zone

57% acc · 62%

Head

49% acc · 46%

67% acc · 16%

Body

63% acc · 48%

89% acc · 22%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

60% acc · 68%

Distance

51% acc · 83%

83% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

70% acc · 19%

Ground

80% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Patchy Mix rounds

even

Jakub Wiklacz rounds

Round 1Jakub Wiklacz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:48

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Patchy Mix edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control1:17

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Patchy Mix edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:36

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 58

Sig Strikes

46 / 83

66.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

75 / 101

Total Strikes

107 / 147

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:41

Ctrl Time

2:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jakub Wiklacz	13 / 24	28 / 40	0 / 0	1
1	Patchy Mix	5 / 8	11 / 14	2 / 2	0
2	Jakub Wiklacz	31 / 56	48 / 74	0 / 0	1
2	Patchy Mix	25 / 41	35 / 51	2 / 4	0
3	Jakub Wiklacz	2 / 3	31 / 33	0 / 0	1
3	Patchy Mix	7 / 9	29 / 36	1 / 1	0

Patchy Mix

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2

Jakub Wiklacz

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2