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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC R3

Elo1546

Elo1465

Pat SabatinivsTucker LutzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Saturday, November 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tucker Lutz wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tucker Lutz at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Pat Sabatini has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tucker Lutz has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

Tucker Lutz

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1546

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Tucker LutzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21

SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23

vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricTucker Lutz

1.69

Strikes / min

3.74

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

54%

Strike defense

44%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

1.99

50%

Takedown defense

69%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniTucker Lutz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.4|Blue -81.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetTucker Lutz

By target zone

53% acc · 56%

Head

24% acc · 29%

100% acc · 25%

Body

82% acc · 53%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

60% acc · 75%

Distance

38% acc · 65%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 35%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

Tucker Lutz rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:35

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:40

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

17 / 35

74.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

111 / 132

Total Strikes

36 / 55

5 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

61%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:55

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tucker Lutz	8 / 11	9 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Pat Sabatini	6 / 11	45 / 59	2 / 6	1
2	Tucker Lutz	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Pat Sabatini	3 / 3	56 / 60	1 / 1	2
3	Tucker Lutz	7 / 18	25 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Pat Sabatini	7 / 10	10 / 13	2 / 4	0

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Tucker Lutz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4