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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC

Elo1546

Elo1424

Pat SabatinivsTristan ConnellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

U-DEC

Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsTristan Connelly: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tristan Connelly wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tristan Connelly at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

Tristan Connelly

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1546

Elo

1424

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Tristan Connelly

oldest →

vs Michel Pereira · Sep 19

vs Darren Elkins · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricTristan Connelly

1.69

Strikes / min

3.31

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

54%

Strike defense

50%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

0.33

50%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniTristan Connelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Tristan Connelly(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.5|Blue -122.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetTristan Connelly

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

24% acc · 53%

100% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 32%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

41% acc · 42%

Distance

33% acc · 74%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 21%

92% acc · 42%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

Tristan Connelly rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control4:05

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tristan Connelly edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:35

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

19 / 50

57%

Sig Str %

35.7%

73 / 98

Total Strikes

87 / 125

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:58

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tristan Connelly	3 / 8	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Pat Sabatini	11 / 16	33 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Tristan Connelly	4 / 15	47 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Pat Sabatini	8 / 15	30 / 38	1 / 1	1
3	Tristan Connelly	12 / 27	34 / 49	1 / 1	0
3	Pat Sabatini	7 / 14	10 / 17	0 / 4	0

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Tristan Connelly

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3