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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC R3

Elo1546

Elo1422

Pat SabatinivsTJ LaramieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Sabatini at -630 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Pat Sabatini has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Pat Sabatini has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

TJ Laramie

Blue Corner

-630

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1546

Elo

1422

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

TJ Laramie

oldest →

SUBvs Darrick Minner · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricTJ Laramie

1.69

Strikes / min

1.49

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

54%

Strike defense

38%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

1.44

50%

Takedown defense

40%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap-1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniTJ Laramie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)TJ Laramie(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.7|Blue -123.7

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -427.0|Blue +427.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetTJ Laramie

By target zone

53% acc · 81%

Head

39% acc · 60%

83% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 27%

By position

54% acc · 36%

Distance

50% acc · 80%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

59% acc · 61%

Ground

50% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

TJ Laramie rounds

Round 1TJ Laramie edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:21

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control3:57

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control3:41

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 63

Sig Strikes

15 / 31

52.7%

Sig Str %

34%

124 / 162

Total Strikes

22 / 39

6 / 10

TDs

1 / 4

66.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

7:59

Ctrl Time

4:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	TJ Laramie	9 / 15	15 / 21	1 / 2
1	Pat Sabatini	9 / 16	25 / 32	1 / 2
2	TJ Laramie	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 2
2	Pat Sabatini	24 / 40	71 / 94	2 / 2
3	TJ Laramie	6 / 14	7 / 16	0 / 0
3	Pat Sabatini	3 / 7	28 / 36	3 / 6

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

TJ Laramie

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights2