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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · SUB R2

Elo1546

Elo1479

Pat SabatinivsLucas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:48

Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsLucas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Sabatini at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Lucas Almeida is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Pat Sabatini has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Pat Sabatini has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

Lucas Almeida

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1546

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Lucas AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22

KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23

vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24

vs Danny Silva · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricLucas Almeida

1.69

Strikes / min

4.94

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

5.36

54%

Strike defense

44%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

53%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniLucas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Lucas Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.7|Blue -66.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetLucas Almeida

By target zone

78% acc · 93%

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 4%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

77% acc · 89%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

Lucas Almeida rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control4:50

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:37

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 35

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

87%

Sig Str %

33%

88 / 97

Total Strikes

3 / 5

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucas Almeida	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Pat Sabatini	23 / 31	81 / 90	1 / 1	0
2	Lucas Almeida	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Pat Sabatini	4 / 4	7 / 7	1 / 2	1

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6