← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC R3

Elo1546

Elo1538

Pat SabatinivsJoanderson BritoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsJoanderson Brito: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Sabatini at +172 American odds

+$172 profit

$272 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Pat Sabatini has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

Joanderson Brito

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1546

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Joanderson BritoW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Nov 23

KOvs Jack Shore · May 24

vs William Gomis · Sep 24

vs Isaac Thomson · Dec 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricJoanderson Brito

1.69

Strikes / min

2.43

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

54%

Strike defense

44%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

3.38

50%

Takedown defense

47%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniJoanderson Brito

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Joanderson Brito(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetJoanderson Brito

By target zone

79% acc · 92%

Head

33% acc · 67%

67% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 33%

Leg

0% acc

By position

29% acc · 8%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

91% acc · 88%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

Joanderson Brito rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control4:43

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:34

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:30

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 31

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

75.3%

Sig Str %

50%

135 / 158

Total Strikes

27 / 46

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joanderson Brito	1 / 1	10 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Pat Sabatini	12 / 14	22 / 28	2 / 2	1
2	Joanderson Brito	2 / 4	13 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Pat Sabatini	6 / 8	52 / 59	1 / 2	0
3	Joanderson Brito	0 / 4	4 / 10	0 / 0	1
3	Pat Sabatini	6 / 9	61 / 71	1 / 1	0

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Joanderson Brito

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10