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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · U-DEC R3

Elo1546

Elo1527

Pat SabatinivsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPat Sabatini: WrestlervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Pat Sabatini wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Sabatini at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chepe Mariscal enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Sabatini

Red Corner

Chepe Mariscal

Blue Corner

-116

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1546

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat SabatiniW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Chepe MariscalW5 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Peek · Jun 23

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Sep 23

vs Morgan Charriere · Apr 24

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat SabatiniMetricChepe Mariscal

1.69

Strikes / min

4.14

1.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

54%

Strike defense

52%

4.27

TDs / 15 min

2.34

50%

Takedown defense

59%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat SabatiniChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.3|Blue -19.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat SabatiniTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

42% acc · 83%

Head

15% acc · 29%

40% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

22% acc · 33%

Distance

46% acc · 86%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

25% acc · 14%

67% acc · 50%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Sabatini rounds

even

Chepe Mariscal rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:39

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns4

Control3:36

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control4:22

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

36.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

40 / 61

Total Strikes

48 / 71

7 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:37

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chepe Mariscal	1 / 4	5 / 9	0 / 0
1	Pat Sabatini	4 / 11	8 / 15	2 / 2
2	Chepe Mariscal	5 / 10	32 / 44	0 / 0
2	Pat Sabatini	7 / 13	21 / 31	4 / 8
3	Chepe Mariscal	1 / 5	11 / 18	0 / 0
3	Pat Sabatini	1 / 5	11 / 15	1 / 2

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6