← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1493

Pat HealyvsKhabib NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPat Healy: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Healy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Healy

Red Corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1353

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat HealyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bobby Green · Dec 13

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Jul 14

latest

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat HealyMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov

2.57

Strikes / min

4.10

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

50%

Strike defense

65%

3.08

TDs / 15 min

5.32

55%

Takedown defense

84%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap+2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat HealyKhabib Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Healy(4 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.7|Blue +139.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.5|Blue -48.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat HealyTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov

By target zone

21% acc · 61%

Head

35% acc · 74%

57% acc · 27%

Body

90% acc · 17%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

27% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 81%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

29% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Healy rounds

even

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:01

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 157

Sig Strikes

54 / 130

28%

Sig Str %

41.7%

68 / 189

Total Strikes

90 / 169

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 11

TD %

46.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

6:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	29 / 70	30 / 71	1 / 3
1	Pat Healy	19 / 76	22 / 82	0 / 1
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	15 / 38	24 / 49	2 / 5
2	Pat Healy	19 / 59	32 / 75	0 / 1
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	10 / 22	36 / 49	2 / 3
3	Pat Healy	6 / 22	14 / 32	0 / 0

Pat Healy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13