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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · SUB R2

Elo1353

Elo1391

Pat BarryvsStefan StruveUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Model Prediction: Pat Barry wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Barry at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Barry is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Pat Barry has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve threatens submissions; Pat Barry has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Pat Barry has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Pat Barry has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stefan Struve has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry

Red Corner

Stefan Struve

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1353

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat BarryL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Christian Morecraft · Jan 12

KOvs Lavar Johnson · May 12

KOvs Shane del Rosario · Dec 12

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jun 13

KOvs Soa Palelei · Dec 13

latest

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricStefan Struve

2.72

Strikes / min

3.12

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

59%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.56

76%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat BarryStefan Struve

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Barry(9 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.9|Blue +37.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetStefan Struve

By target zone

42% acc · 27%

Head

18% acc · 32%

100% acc · 13%

Body

83% acc · 32%

82% acc · 60%

Leg

73% acc · 35%

By position

66% acc · 97%

Distance

37% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Barry rounds

even

Stefan Struve rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 45

Sig Strikes

31 / 82

66%

Sig Str %

37%

30 / 45

Total Strikes

31 / 82

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stefan Struve	19 / 43	19 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Pat Barry	18 / 26	18 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Stefan Struve	12 / 39	12 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	Pat Barry	12 / 19	12 / 19	0 / 0	0

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20