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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Soa Palelei won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1490
Soa Palelei

Pat BarryvsSoa PaleleiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · Friday, December 6, 2013Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Soa Palelei won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:09

Model Prediction: Soa Palelei wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Soa Palelei wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Soa Palelei at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pat Barry is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Soa Palelei has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Soa Palelei is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Pat Barry has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Pat Barry has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Soa Palelei has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry
Red Corner
VS
Soa Palelei
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1353
Elo
1490
47
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat Barry
oldest →
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 11
W
KOvs Christian Morecraft · Jan 12
L
KOvs Lavar Johnson · May 12
W
KOvs Shane del Rosario · Dec 12
L
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jun 13
latest
Soa Palelei
oldest →
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Aug 13
W
KOvs Ruan Potts · May 14
L
vs Jared Rosholt · Jun 14
W
KOvs Walt Harris · Nov 14
L
KOvs Antonio Silva · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricSoa Palelei
2.72
Strikes / min
2.47
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
59%
Strike defense
48%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.20
76%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1477 vs 1514Strikes17.0 vs 25.0Takedowns0.0 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.09 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs 1.0
Pat BarrySoa Palelei

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Pat Barry(9 fights)Soa Palelei(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.7|Blue +137.7
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetSoa Palelei

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
10
83% acc · 83%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
2
100% acc · 17%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 100%
Distance
1
33% acc · 8%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
11
100% acc · 92%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Pat Barry rounds
0
even
1
Soa Palelei rounds
Round 1Soa Palelei edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
12 / 14
33%
Sig Str %
85%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
31 / 33
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Soa Palelei12 / 1431 / 331 / 10
1Pat Barry1 / 31 / 30 / 00

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Soa Palelei

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights6