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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Shawn Jordan won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1490
Shawn Jordan

Pat BarryvsShawn JordanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Shawn Jordan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:59

Model Prediction: Shawn Jordan wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Shawn Jordan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shawn Jordan at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pat Barry is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Shawn Jordan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Shawn Jordan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Pat Barry has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Pat Barry has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Shawn Jordan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry
Red Corner
VS
Shawn Jordan
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1353
Elo
1490
47
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat Barry
oldest →
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 11
W
KOvs Christian Morecraft · Jan 12
L
KOvs Lavar Johnson · May 12
W
KOvs Shane del Rosario · Dec 12
L
KOvs Soa Palelei · Dec 13
latest
Shawn Jordan
oldest →
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Mar 14
W
KOvs Jack May · Aug 14
W
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jan 15
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 15
L
vs Ruslan Magomedov · Oct 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricShawn Jordan
2.72
Strikes / min
2.87
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
3.30
59%
Strike defense
47%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.97
76%
Takedown defense
76%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1490 vs 1515Strikes18.5 vs 40.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.4
Pat BarryShawn Jordan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Pat Barry(9 fights)Shawn Jordan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.8|Blue +137.8
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetShawn Jordan

By target zone

1
50% acc · 50%
Head
10
67% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
0

By position

2
67% acc · 100%
Distance
6
55% acc · 60%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Pat Barry rounds
0
even
1
Shawn Jordan rounds
Round 1Shawn Jordan edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 3
Sig Strikes
10 / 15
66%
Sig Str %
66%
2 / 3
Total Strikes
16 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shawn Jordan10 / 1516 / 220 / 00
1Pat Barry2 / 32 / 30 / 00

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Shawn Jordan

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10