Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Pat Barry won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1352

Pat BarryvsShane del RosarioUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Barry won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:26

Model Prediction: Shane del Rosario wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Pat Barry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane del Rosario at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Barry enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Pat Barry is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Shane del Rosario has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Pat Barry has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Shane del Rosario (53.5%).
Shane del Rosario has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry

Red Corner

Shane del Rosario

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat BarryL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 11

KOvs Christian Morecraft · Jan 12

KOvs Lavar Johnson · May 12

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jun 13

KOvs Soa Palelei · Dec 13

latest

Shane del Rosario

oldest →

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricShane del Rosario

2.72

Strikes / min

3.93

3.54

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

59%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.20

76%

Takedown defense

16%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.82Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Pat BarryShane del Rosario

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Pat Barry(9 fights)Shane del Rosario(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetShane del Rosario

By target zone

73% acc · 73%

Head

11% acc · 7%

0% acc

Body

73% acc · 57%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 36%

By position

85% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 29%

Clinch

77% acc · 71%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Pat Barry rounds

even

Shane del Rosario rounds

Round 1Shane del Rosario edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:19

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:17Control

Round 2Pat Barry edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 15

Sig Strikes

14 / 25

73.5%

Sig Str %

31.5%

11 / 15

Total Strikes

33 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane del Rosario	14 / 22	33 / 41	1 / 4	2
1	Pat Barry	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Shane del Rosario	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Pat Barry	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0	0

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Shane del Rosario

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach—

Fights2