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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Lavar Johnson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1352

Pat BarryvsLavar JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Lavar Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:38

Model Prediction: Lavar Johnson wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Lavar Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lavar Johnson at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lavar Johnson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Pat Barry has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Pat Barry has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Lavar Johnson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry
Red Corner
VS
Lavar Johnson
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1353
Elo
1352
47
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat BarryL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 11
W
KOvs Christian Morecraft · Jan 12
W
KOvs Shane del Rosario · Dec 12
L
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jun 13
L
KOvs Soa Palelei · Dec 13
latest
Lavar JohnsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joey Beltran · Jan 12
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · May 12
L
vs Brendan Schaub · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricLavar Johnson
2.72
Strikes / min
5.39
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
2.54
59%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.61
76%
Takedown defense
54%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 3.67 — meaningful gap+2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1489 vs 1513Strikes19.9 vs 65.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Pat BarryLavar Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Pat Barry(9 fights)Lavar Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +8.0|Blue -8.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetLavar Johnson

By target zone

11
61% acc · 73%
Head
32
51% acc · 82%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
6
86% acc · 15%
3
100% acc · 20%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

9
64% acc · 60%
Distance
2
14% acc · 5%
5
71% acc · 33%
Clinch
37
65% acc · 95%
1
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Pat Barry rounds
0
even
1
Lavar Johnson rounds
Round 1Lavar Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control2:26
Knockdowns0
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
15 / 22
Sig Strikes
39 / 71
68%
Sig Str %
54%
22 / 29
Total Strikes
46 / 78
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:26
Ctrl Time
0:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lavar Johnson39 / 7146 / 780 / 00
1Pat Barry15 / 2222 / 290 / 11

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Lavar Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights4