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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Pat Barry won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1351
Christian Morecraft

Pat BarryvsChristian MorecraftUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Pat Barry won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Christian Morecraft wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Pat Barry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Morecraft at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pat Barry is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Christian Morecraft has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Christian Morecraft threatens submissions; Pat Barry has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Pat Barry has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Pat Barry has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Christian Morecraft has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Pat Barry
Red Corner
VS
Christian Morecraft
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1353
Elo
1351
47
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'6"
187.96 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Pat BarryL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 11
L
KOvs Lavar Johnson · May 12
W
KOvs Shane del Rosario · Dec 12
L
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jun 13
L
KOvs Soa Palelei · Dec 13
latest
Christian Morecraft
oldest →
L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Aug 10
W
SUBvs Sean McCorkle · Mar 11
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jun 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Pat BarryMetricChristian Morecraft
2.72
Strikes / min
2.82
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
2.46
59%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.26
76%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1475 vs 1488Strikes21.0 vs 25.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-0.6 vs -0.3
Pat BarryChristian Morecraft

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Pat Barry(9 fights)Christian Morecraft(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -97.0|Blue +97.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Pat BarryTargetChristian Morecraft

By target zone

10
100% acc · 83%
Head
3
17% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
2
67% acc · 17%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

8
89% acc · 67%
Distance
2
12% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 33%
Ground
1
50% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Pat Barry rounds
0
even
0
Christian Morecraft rounds
Round 1Pat Barry edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:25
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:21Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 13
Sig Strikes
3 / 19
92%
Sig Str %
15%
12 / 15
Total Strikes
5 / 21
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
1:21

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Christian Morecraft3 / 195 / 212 / 31
1Pat Barry12 / 1312 / 150 / 00

Pat Barry

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Christian Morecraft

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights4