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Welterweight
3 Rounds
James Head won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Papy Abedi
Elo1352
James Head

Papy AbedivsJames HeadUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · Saturday, April 14, 2012Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

James Head won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupPapy Abedi: WrestlervsJames Head: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: James Head wins(69.0%)

Actual result: James Head wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Head at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • James Head threatens submissions; Papy Abedi has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • James Head has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Papy Abedi (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Papy Abedi
Red Corner
VS
James Head
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1490
Elo
1352
48
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Papy Abedi
oldest →
L
SUBvs Thiago Alves · Nov 11
W
vs Besam Yousef · Apr 13
L
KOvs Dylan Andrews · Aug 13
latest
James HeadL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Nick Ring · Jun 11
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Jul 12
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 12
L
SUBvs Jason High · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Papy AbediMetricJames Head
2.80
Strikes / min
2.75
3.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.11
48%
Strike defense
49%
3.47
TDs / 15 min
0.41
50%
Takedown defense
66%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1482Strikes14.0 vs 30.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Papy AbediJames Head

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Papy Abedi(4 fights)James Head(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.9|Blue -137.9
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Papy AbediTargetJames Head

By target zone

7
54% acc · 64%
Head
16
44% acc · 76%
2
100% acc · 18%
Body
5
71% acc · 24%
2
67% acc · 18%
Leg
0

By position

6
50% acc · 55%
Distance
9
32% acc · 43%
2
67% acc · 18%
Clinch
10
83% acc · 48%
3
100% acc · 27%
Ground
2
67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Papy Abedi rounds
0
even
1
James Head rounds
Round 1James Head edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:55
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 18
Sig Strikes
21 / 43
61%
Sig Str %
48%
19 / 28
Total Strikes
28 / 50
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
33%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:55
Ctrl Time
0:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Head21 / 4328 / 500 / 01
1Papy Abedi11 / 1819 / 281 / 30

Papy Abedi

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights4

James Head

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5