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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Papy Abedi won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Papy AbedivsBesam YousefUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Papy Abedi won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Besam Yousef wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Papy Abedi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Besam Yousef at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Papy Abedi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Papy Abedi has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Papy Abedi (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Papy Abedi

Red Corner

Besam Yousef

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Papy AbediL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Nov 11

SUBvs James Head · Apr 12

KOvs Dylan Andrews · Aug 13

latest

Besam Yousef

oldest →

SUBvs Simeon Thoresen · Apr 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Papy AbediMetricBesam Yousef

2.80

Strikes / min

3.14

3.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

48%

Strike defense

38%

3.47

TDs / 15 min

1.33

50%

Takedown defense

50%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Papy AbediBesam Yousef

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Papy Abedi(4 fights)Besam Yousef(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.2|Blue -138.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Papy AbediTargetBesam Yousef

By target zone

45% acc · 26%

Head

40% acc · 51%

90% acc · 66%

Body

95% acc · 42%

40% acc · 8%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

48% acc · 19%

Distance

42% acc · 19%

79% acc · 51%

Clinch

59% acc · 81%

64% acc · 30%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Papy Abedi rounds

even

Besam Yousef rounds

Round 1Papy Abedi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:32

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Papy Abedi edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:40

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Besam Yousef edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:26

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 80

Sig Strikes

43 / 79

68%

Sig Str %

55%

69 / 97

Total Strikes

142 / 185

4 / 6

TDs

2 / 3

77.7%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:38

Ctrl Time

4:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Besam Yousef	12 / 23	29 / 43	0 / 0
1	Papy Abedi	17 / 31	25 / 39	2 / 2
2	Besam Yousef	16 / 33	62 / 83	1 / 2
2	Papy Abedi	23 / 33	27 / 38	1 / 3
3	Besam Yousef	15 / 23	51 / 59	1 / 1
3	Papy Abedi	13 / 16	17 / 20	1 / 1

Papy Abedi

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Besam Yousef

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2