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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Paige VanZant won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1392

Paige VanZantvsRachael OstovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Paige VanZant won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsRachael Ostovich: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paige VanZant at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paige VanZant enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Rachael Ostovich has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Rachael Ostovich threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Rachael Ostovich has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rachael Ostovich has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Rachael Ostovich

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1492

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZantL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Rachael OstovichL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Karine Gevorgyan · Dec 17

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Jul 18

KOvs Gina Mazany · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricRachael Ostovich

3.35

Strikes / min

2.54

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

42%

Strike defense

57%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.03

34%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paige VanZantRachael Ostovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Rachael Ostovich(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.5|Blue -100.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +173.0|Blue -173.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paige VanZantTargetRachael Ostovich

By target zone

57% acc · 76%

Head

64% acc · 70%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 29%

Distance

73% acc · 80%

Clinch

86% acc · 71%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paige VanZant rounds

even

Rachael Ostovich rounds

Round 1Rachael Ostovich edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control4:12

6Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:21

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 27

Sig Strikes

10 / 14

51.5%

Sig Str %

70.5%

38 / 56

Total Strikes

13 / 18

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rachael Ostovich	6 / 8	9 / 12	3 / 3	0
1	Paige VanZant	2 / 7	12 / 17	0 / 1	1
2	Rachael Ostovich	4 / 6	4 / 6	1 / 1	0
2	Paige VanZant	15 / 20	26 / 39	0 / 0	1

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Rachael Ostovich

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4