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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Michelle Waterson won · SUB R1

Elo1492

Elo1493

Paige VanZantvsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Michelle Waterson won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:21

Model Prediction: Michelle Waterson wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michelle Waterson at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Michelle Waterson

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZant

oldest →

SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Michelle Waterson

oldest →

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19

vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19

vs Carla Esparza · May 20

vs Angela Hill · Sep 20

vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricMichelle Waterson

3.35

Strikes / min

—

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

—

42%

Strike defense

—

1.27

TDs / 15 min

—

34%

Takedown defense

—

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paige VanZantMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -412.0|Blue +412.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights3