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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Paige VanZant won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1492

Elo1363

Paige VanZantvsKailin CurranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Paige VanZant won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:54

Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsKailin Curran: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kailin Curran wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kailin Curran at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kailin Curran enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Kailin Curran has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Kailin Curran threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Kailin Curran has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kailin Curran has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Kailin Curran

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZant

oldest →

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Kailin CurranL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Emily Peters Kagan · Dec 15

SUBvs Felice Herrig · Jul 16

vs Jamie Moyle · Dec 16

DECvs Alexandra Albu · Jul 17

DECvs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricKailin Curran

3.35

Strikes / min

3.89

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.75

42%

Strike defense

53%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.00

34%

Takedown defense

61%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.86

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Kailin Curran(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.7|Blue -129.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paige VanZantTargetKailin Curran

By target zone

57% acc · 90%

Head

40% acc · 50%

40% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 11%

Distance

46% acc · 21%

55% acc · 44%

Clinch

52% acc · 50%

64% acc · 44%

Ground

89% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paige VanZant rounds

even

Kailin Curran rounds

Round 1Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:46

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:21

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 108

Sig Strikes

28 / 49

56.3%

Sig Str %

61%

167 / 241

Total Strikes

62 / 89

3 / 6

TDs

5 / 5

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:34

Ctrl Time

3:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kailin Curran	16 / 31	24 / 41	2 / 2	0
1	Paige VanZant	28 / 51	66 / 95	0 / 2	3
2	Kailin Curran	7 / 10	18 / 22	3 / 3	0
2	Paige VanZant	14 / 28	54 / 84	1 / 2	0
3	Kailin Curran	5 / 8	20 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Paige VanZant	19 / 29	47 / 62	2 / 2	0

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Kailin Curran

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7