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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jessica-Rose Clark won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1460

Paige VanZantvsJessica-Rose ClarkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Jessica-Rose Clark won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsJessica-Rose Clark: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jessica-Rose Clark wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Jessica-Rose Clark wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica-Rose Clark at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica-Rose Clark enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Jessica-Rose Clark has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Jessica-Rose Clark has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jessica-Rose Clark has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Jessica-Rose Clark

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1492

Elo

1460

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZant

oldest →

SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Jessica-Rose ClarkL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sarah Alpar · Sep 20

vs Joselyne Edwards · Oct 21

SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Feb 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 22

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricJessica-Rose Clark

3.35

Strikes / min

3.73

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

42%

Strike defense

58%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

1.66

34%

Takedown defense

62%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paige VanZantJessica-Rose Clark

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Jessica-Rose Clark(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.7|Blue -32.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +336.0|Blue -336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paige VanZantTargetJessica-Rose Clark

By target zone

39% acc · 54%

Head

51% acc · 65%

56% acc · 33%

Body

63% acc · 22%

64% acc · 13%

Leg

88% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 74%

Distance

48% acc · 58%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

64% acc · 13%

80% acc · 22%

Ground

80% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paige VanZant rounds

even

Jessica-Rose Clark rounds

Round 1Jessica-Rose Clark edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:04

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:29

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 118

Sig Strikes

55 / 98

48.7%

Sig Str %

56.7%

96 / 162

Total Strikes

78 / 122

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

5:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica-Rose Clark	12 / 25	24 / 37	1 / 2	0
1	Paige VanZant	7 / 16	21 / 30	0 / 1	0
2	Jessica-Rose Clark	15 / 22	26 / 34	1 / 1	1
2	Paige VanZant	19 / 29	47 / 59	0 / 1	0
3	Jessica-Rose Clark	28 / 51	28 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Paige VanZant	28 / 73	28 / 73	0 / 0	0

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Jessica-Rose Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9