← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Paige VanZant won · SUB R3

Elo1492

Elo1368

Paige VanZantvsAlex ChambersUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paige VanZant won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:01

Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsAlex Chambers: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paige VanZant at -1500 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paige VanZant threatens submissions; Alex Chambers has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Alex Chambers threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Alex Chambers has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Chambers (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Alex Chambers

Blue Corner

-1500

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+1000

(9%)

1492

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZant

oldest →

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Alex ChambersL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aisling Daly · Dec 14

SUBvs Kailin Curran · May 15

vs Nadia Kassem · Nov 17

SUBvs Livinha Souza · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricAlex Chambers

3.35

Strikes / min

2.97

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.10

42%

Strike defense

50%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.31

34%

Takedown defense

53%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73Δ 2.86 — meaningful gap-2.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paige VanZantAlex Chambers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Alex Chambers(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.8|Blue -124.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paige VanZantTargetAlex Chambers

By target zone

47% acc · 51%

Head

64% acc · 77%

74% acc · 44%

Body

43% acc · 10%

44% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 26%

Distance

62% acc · 53%

66% acc · 64%

Clinch

67% acc · 47%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paige VanZant rounds

even

Alex Chambers rounds

Round 1Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:46

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control3:37

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:49

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 130

Sig Strikes

30 / 47

58.3%

Sig Str %

73.3%

165 / 248

Total Strikes

66 / 88

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 4

73.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:12

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Chambers	17 / 27	40 / 51	0 / 3	0
1	Paige VanZant	27 / 59	65 / 107	1 / 1	0
2	Alex Chambers	10 / 17	23 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Paige VanZant	38 / 59	84 / 118	1 / 5	0
3	Alex Chambers	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0	1
3	Paige VanZant	8 / 12	16 / 23	1 / 1	1

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Alex Chambers

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5