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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1541

Elo1407

Paddy PimblettvsLuigi VendraminiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25

Style matchupPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fightervsLuigi Vendramini: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luigi Vendramini has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luigi Vendramini has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Pimblett

Red Corner

Luigi Vendramini

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1541

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Luigi Vendramini

oldest →

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Sep 18

KOvs Jessin Ayari · Oct 20

vs Fares Ziam · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy PimblettMetricLuigi Vendramini

5.49

Strikes / min

2.82

3.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

42%

Strike defense

57%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

1.11

44%

Takedown defense

100%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy PimblettLuigi Vendramini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Luigi Vendramini(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.5|Blue -134.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy PimblettTargetLuigi Vendramini

By target zone

47% acc · 62%

Head

35% acc · 56%

88% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 16%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

57% acc · 98%

Distance

47% acc · 84%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

60% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Pimblett rounds

even

Luigi Vendramini rounds

Round 1Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 81

Sig Strikes

25 / 51

58%

Sig Str %

49%

47 / 81

Total Strikes

30 / 56

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luigi Vendramini	25 / 51	30 / 56	1 / 1	0
1	Paddy Pimblett	47 / 81	47 / 81	0 / 2	0

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Luigi Vendramini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4