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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · SUB R1

Elo1541

Elo1494

Paddy PimblettvsKazula VargasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:49

Style matchupPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fightervsKazula Vargas: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -760 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Kazula Vargas has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Kazula Vargas has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kazula Vargas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Pimblett

Red Corner

Kazula Vargas

Blue Corner

-760

(88%)

Vegas Odds

—

1541

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Kazula Vargas

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19

vs Brok Weaver · Feb 20

vs Rong Zhu · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy PimblettMetricKazula Vargas

5.49

Strikes / min

3.65

3.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.77

42%

Strike defense

57%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

0.40

44%

Takedown defense

30%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy PimblettKazula Vargas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Kazula Vargas(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.3|Blue -47.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy PimblettTargetKazula Vargas

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

71% acc · 71%

Body

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 67%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 29%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Pimblett rounds

even

Kazula Vargas rounds

Round 1Kazula Vargas edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:53

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:43Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

7 / 9

50%

Sig Str %

77%

5 / 8

Total Strikes

16 / 21

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

2:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kazula Vargas	7 / 9	16 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Paddy Pimblett	3 / 6	5 / 8	1 / 2	1

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Kazula Vargas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4