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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · SUB R2

Elo1541

Elo1506

Paddy PimblettvsJordan LeavittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:46

Style matchupPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fightervsJordan Leavitt: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Jordan Leavitt has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Pimblett

Red Corner

Jordan Leavitt

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1541

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy PimblettMetricJordan Leavitt

5.49

Strikes / min

2.21

3.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

42%

Strike defense

58%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

3.15

44%

Takedown defense

30%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy PimblettJordan Leavitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.6|Blue -35.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy PimblettTargetJordan Leavitt

By target zone

41% acc · 82%

Head

63% acc · 31%

50% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 56%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

18% acc · 24%

Distance

75% acc · 56%

89% acc · 47%

Clinch

70% acc · 44%

63% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Pimblett rounds

even

Jordan Leavitt rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:01

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 2Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 39

Sig Strikes

16 / 22

42.5%

Sig Str %

75.5%

30 / 53

Total Strikes

41 / 48

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 9

100%

TD %

18.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

4:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Leavitt	7 / 8	26 / 27	3 / 8	0
1	Paddy Pimblett	10 / 21	18 / 29	1 / 1	2
2	Jordan Leavitt	9 / 14	15 / 21	0 / 1	0
2	Paddy Pimblett	7 / 18	12 / 24	0 / 0	2

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10