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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1483

Paddy PimblettvsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fightervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gordon has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jared Gordon has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Paddy Pimblett has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Pimblett

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1541

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy PimblettMetricJared Gordon

5.49

Strikes / min

5.57

3.89

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

42%

Strike defense

55%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

1.91

44%

Takedown defense

60%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy PimblettJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.9|Blue -58.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy PimblettTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

27% acc · 52%

Head

52% acc · 53%

81% acc · 21%

Body

52% acc · 23%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

39% acc · 86%

Distance

56% acc · 88%

53% acc · 13%

Clinch

83% acc · 8%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Pimblett rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:35

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 155

Sig Strikes

60 / 103

40.3%

Sig Str %

70.7%

97 / 194

Total Strikes

100 / 143

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

6:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gordon	32 / 53	40 / 61	0 / 1
1	Paddy Pimblett	29 / 70	29 / 70	0 / 1
2	Jared Gordon	24 / 46	39 / 61	1 / 2
2	Paddy Pimblett	28 / 70	47 / 89	0 / 0
3	Jared Gordon	4 / 4	21 / 21	2 / 3
3	Paddy Pimblett	6 / 15	21 / 35	0 / 2

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17