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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Holohan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Paddy HolohanvsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paddy Holohan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaddy Holohan: WrestlervsVaughan Lee: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paddy Holohan wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Paddy Holohan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Holohan at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vaughan Lee has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Holohan

Red Corner

Vaughan Lee

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Holohan

oldest →

SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14

vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14

vs Shane Howell · Jan 15

SUBvs Louis Smolka · Oct 15

latest

Vaughan Lee

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12

vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13

SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13

vs Nam Phan · Mar 14

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy HolohanMetricVaughan Lee

2.13

Strikes / min

3.47

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

46%

Strike defense

70%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

0.81

71%

Takedown defense

72%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy HolohanVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.5|Blue -135.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -232.0|Blue +232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy HolohanTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

38% acc · 64%

Head

46% acc · 70%

41% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 15%

20% acc · 4%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

32% acc · 79%

Distance

47% acc · 59%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

63% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Holohan rounds

even

Vaughan Lee rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control4:17

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control3:24

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:13

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 75

Sig Strikes

27 / 51

44.3%

Sig Str %

57%

60 / 108

Total Strikes

52 / 79

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:54

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vaughan Lee	9 / 13	17 / 22	0 / 0	1
1	Paddy Holohan	2 / 6	23 / 27	0 / 1	2
2	Vaughan Lee	4 / 7	21 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Paddy Holohan	4 / 6	14 / 17	0 / 1	0
3	Vaughan Lee	14 / 31	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Paddy Holohan	22 / 63	23 / 64	1 / 1	0

Paddy Holohan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8