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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Holohan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Paddy HolohanvsShane HowellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Holohan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Paddy Holohan wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Paddy Holohan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Holohan at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paddy Holohan has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Holohan

Red Corner

Shane Howell

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy Holohan

oldest →

SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14

vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14

vs Vaughan Lee · Jul 15

SUBvs Louis Smolka · Oct 15

latest

Shane Howell

oldest →

SUBvs Ray Borg · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy HolohanMetricShane Howell

2.13

Strikes / min

1.27

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

46%

Strike defense

42%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

0.00

71%

Takedown defense

20%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68evenly matched on net striking-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy HolohanShane Howell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Shane Howell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.3|Blue -136.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy HolohanTargetShane Howell

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

22% acc · 50%

57% acc · 10%

Body

80% acc · 36%

91% acc · 24%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

46% acc · 62%

Distance

34% acc · 91%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

88% acc · 36%

Ground

40% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Holohan rounds

even

Shane Howell rounds

Round 1Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:48

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:23

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:45

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 74

Sig Strikes

22 / 64

56.7%

Sig Str %

35%

114 / 164

Total Strikes

26 / 68

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:56

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Howell	9 / 17	10 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Paddy Holohan	15 / 22	47 / 64	1 / 1	2
2	Shane Howell	4 / 19	6 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Paddy Holohan	11 / 23	22 / 34	1 / 1	0
3	Shane Howell	9 / 28	10 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Paddy Holohan	16 / 29	45 / 66	1 / 2	0

Paddy Holohan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Shane Howell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2