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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1425

Paddy HolohanvsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:09

Style matchupPaddy Holohan: WrestlervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paddy Holohan has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paddy Holohan

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1490

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paddy HolohanW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14

vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14

vs Shane Howell · Jan 15

vs Vaughan Lee · Jul 15

latest

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paddy HolohanMetricLouis Smolka

2.13

Strikes / min

4.67

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

46%

Strike defense

53%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

1.69

71%

Takedown defense

32%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paddy HolohanLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.6|Blue -65.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paddy HolohanTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

22% acc · 38%

Head

64% acc · 86%

80% acc · 50%

Body

88% acc · 12%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

25% acc · 38%

Distance

56% acc · 31%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

69% acc · 56%

Ground

71% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paddy Holohan rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Paddy Holohan edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control2:42

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:33

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 40

Sig Strikes

59 / 89

40%

Sig Str %

67%

31 / 56

Total Strikes

66 / 97

4 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

46%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:15

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Smolka	19 / 27	23 / 31	0 / 2	0
1	Paddy Holohan	11 / 19	19 / 28	3 / 7	0
2	Louis Smolka	40 / 62	43 / 66	0 / 0	2
2	Paddy Holohan	5 / 21	12 / 28	1 / 2	0

Paddy Holohan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17